CERR Assesses the Potential for Expanding Trade Between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan

According to estimates by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), there is potential to increase mutual trade between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan by 30–40%. Additional opportunities for expanding economic cooperation are primarily linked to the development of industrial cooperation between the two countries.

According to estimates by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), there is potential to increase mutual trade between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan by 30–40%. Additional opportunities for expanding economic cooperation are primarily linked to the development of industrial cooperation between the two countries.
Economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan has demonstrated steady positive dynamics; however, the potential of bilateral relations remains only partially realized. This was stated today by Khurshed Asadov, Deputy Director of the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR), during the international scientific and practical conference “Uzbekistan – Tajikistan: New Prospects for Alliance and Regional Cooperation”, held in Tashkent.
According to the expert, relations between the two countries have reached a qualitatively new level in recent years. Cooperation, reinforced by agreements on strategic partnership and allied relations, has created an institutional foundation for the active development of economic ties.
According to CERR estimates, mutual trade between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan increased 3.8 times during 2017–2025, rising from $238 mln to $912 mln. During the same period, Uzbekistan’s exports grew 3.7 times, while imports from Tajikistan increased more than fourfold.
Today, Tajikistan ranks among Uzbekistan’s key regional partners, occupying ninth place among the countries importing Uzbek products.
At the same time, current indicators reflect only part of the possible potential of economic interaction. According to CERR estimates, mutual trade could increase by an additional 30–40% solely through the substitution of Tajikistan’s imports from third countries with products manufactured by Uzbek producers.
The expert emphasized that geographical proximity, a shared border, and well-developed transport connections create favorable conditions for deepening trade relations. In particular, significant prospects remain for expanding Uzbekistan’s industrial exports, including automobiles, household appliances, textile products, and chemical goods.
At the same time, considerable potential also exists in the sphere of industrial cooperation. According to the expert, one of the most promising cooperation models could involve the establishment of joint processing facilities in border regions, particularly focused on the processing of agricultural raw materials and the development of agrologistics centers.
Asadov also noted that further development of transport infrastructure and the expansion of transit opportunities in Central Asia could serve as an additional driver of economic integration.
As emphasized by the Deputy Director of CERR, the current level of allied relations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan creates the foundation for transitioning to a deeper model of economic cooperation, focused on joint investments, industrial cooperation, and the development of regional infrastructure, which could become an important factor in strengthening economic connectivity and promoting the development of Central Asia.
For reference: The international scientific and practical conference “Uzbekistan – Tajikistan: New Prospects for Alliance and Regional Cooperation” was organized by the International Institute for Central Asia (IICA). The event brought together representatives of government institutions, the diplomatic corps, and expert and academic communities from both countries. Participants discussed the current state and prospects for developing trade-economic, investment, and humanitarian cooperation between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

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