MOODY’S: STABLE OPERATING ENVIRONMENT AND QUALITY OF ASSETS
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International rating agency Moody’s published a report "Forecast of development of the banking system of Uzbekistan." The forecast reflects the assessment of the creditworthiness of the banking system of Uzbekistan to the next 12-18 months. In its review, the agency Moody’s sixth year in a row confirms the forecast as "stable".
According to Moody’s, the macroeconomic situation in Uzbekistan is stable. Uzbekistan has shown a high rate of economic growth through a diversified export structure and direction of export revenues to finance public investments.
Sustainable and diversified economy of the country, strong capital investment provides a stable operating environment for banks.
Moody’s notes stable dynamics of asset quality of Uzbek banks and expects that asset quality will remain at a good level.
According to Moody’s over the forecast period, the profitability of the Uzbek banks will remain stable, as in previous years. Operating profit of Uzbek banks is one of the highest among the CIS countries. The agency notes that the high returns of Uzbek banks provide resources for the growth of the credit.
According to the baseline scenario of Moody’s, credit growth in the rated banks will be 20% per year. To maintain the current level of capital adequacy ratio in high credit growth in the forecast period, measures to increase the total capital of banks will be necessary.
Along with this, in 2015, an increase in the total capital of commercial banks by 25% envisages.
Moody’s expects that the liquidity of Uzbek banks during the forecast period will remain at a stable level due to bank deposits.
In 2014, the total assets of banks of Uzbekistan increased by 28.2%, the total loan portfolio - by 31.2%, the aggregate bank capital - by 24.8%.
By the results of 2014, the capital adequacy ratio made 23.8%, which is three times greater than the generally accepted international standards and the current liquidity of the banking system amounted to 64.6%, which is twice more than the prescribed requirements.
In addition, according to a recent IMF study, Uzbekistan on the number of banking institutions on 100 thousand people is leading among the CIS countries. The level of access of banking services is 49.8 banking institutions per 100 thousand of the adult population, and the number of bank accounts opened by individuals is 1102 units per 1000 adult population.
It should be noted that, according to the agency Moody’s, by the results of 2014 the banking system of Uzbekistan is the only CIS country, which has a forecast as "stable".
